A newly released Econometric Institute report, authored by Dr Sabine Knapp, an affiliated researcher from Erasmus School of Economics and in collaboration with Marine Benchmark highlights significant increases in maritime risk exposure, particularly in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Portugal and the Baltic Sea with a focus on increased risk exposure due to the emerging shadow fleet.
The study, which analyses over 45.2 million ship-level estimates from January 2021 to December 2024, reveals a sharp rise in pollution risk exposure—over 40% in the Baltic Region, 100% in the Gulf of Finland, and 20% in Portuguese waters. The report also underscores the growing influence of unregulated "shadow fleets," which are largely composed of vessels engaged in sanction circumvention, avoidance of inspections, and unsafe operations.
Key findings:
- Global pollution risk exposure: Increased by 3% for tankers and 3.7% for oil tankers from 2023 to 2024.
- Shadow fleet watchlist: Designated vessels account for 7.4% of global pollution risk, but this figure jumps to 32% in the Gulf of Finland and 54% when considering all watchlist vessels.
- Geopolitical factors: Trade route changes due to EU, UK and US sanctions on Russian oil have significantly increased risk exposure and in particular pollution risk exposure in European waters.
- Projected trends: Pollution risk in the Gulf of Finland is expected to grow by 2.7% per month through December 2027.
- The study explores the possibility to develop improved situational domain awareness by linking real-time AIS data with ship risk profiles to enhance risk mitigation.
Future developments are planned to enhance risk prediction models related to the shadow fleet.
About Sabine Knapp
Sabine Knapp is an affiliated researcher at Erasmus University where she defended her PhD in 2007. Since then, she has worked for several regulators in the maritime industry including the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) in Lisbon, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London and the Australian Maritime Safety Agency (AMSA) in Australia. Since 2015, she is an independent consultant via her company Seven Ocean Research Pty Ltd promoting science-based advice. She runs a weekly risk prediction routine of the world fleet based on prediction models. To promote transparency, most of her work is published and peer reviewed and some is open access. Over the years, she has developed a risk profiling routine Her work is driven by a passion for enhancing maritime safety and environmental protection.
- More information
For the full EI Report 2025 on Risk Exposure and Shadow Fleets, click here. For more information, please contact Ronald de Groot, Media and Public Relations Officer at Erasmus School of Economics: rdegroot@ese.eur.nl or +31 6 53 641 846.
