‘Labour market in the West is at a turning point’

David Autor gained fame with research on the division in the labour market. His work showed how automation and globalisation increased prosperity, but also caused many middle-class jobs to disappear. Highly educated people benefited, while more people at the bottom ended up in bad contracts. 

‘The labour market in the West is at a turning point,’ said Autor. ‘The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) and an aging population will reduce the differences between the highly educated elite and the rest.’

‘AI will replace more highly educated people than lower educated people’

The central question in Autor’s lecture in Rotterdam was whether AI makes human expertise redundant or strengthens it. He thinks both will happen and argues that the labour market is now moving in a direction with a great need for healthy young workers. According to Autor the influx of well-educated people has leveled off and it is quite possible that AI will replace more highly educated people than people with a low education background. Physical work will become relatively more important again: construction, healthcare, plumbers, etc. A combination of technological changes and an aging population will ensure that other expertise will become scarce in the labour market, Autor stated.

In an interview with the Dutch national newspaper de Telegraaf on Saturday 31 August, Autor says that he is both more optimistic and pessimistic than most people when it comes to AI: ‘On the pessimistic side, I think there are people who will lose their jobs and that will be painful. That can happen quite quickly, and you should not close your eyes to it. But I am not one of those people who think that AI will completely take over our work. I think that AI is primarily a tool to help make decisions. We must use AI in such a way that it helps people do better work.’