A new study reveals that Dutch voters are open to experimenting with public policy to understand the real-world impacts of government initiatives. Conducted by Prof. Robert Dur and Dr Arjan Non from Erasmus School of Economics, together with Paul Prottung and Benedetta Ricci, the study finds that the majority of Dutch voters support randomised policy experiments, particularly when they do not have a strong opinion about the policy.
Policy experimentation, commonly seen in controlled scientific trials, involves implementing policies for a random subset of the population to observe their effectiveness before nationwide rollout. This approach, while popular in sectors like healthcare and medicine, has faced hesitation from politicians worldwide due to fears of public disapproval and perceived unfairness. However, the survey of Dutch voters challenges this assumption, showing a clear preference for experimentation over immediate implementation or maintaining the status quo. The findings could signal a shift in how public policies are developed and tested in the Netherlands.
Public opinion proves to be surprising
Findings reveal that support for policy experimentation is strong when voters are unsure about a policy’s effectiveness. For instance, Dutch voters showed approval for testing policies on issues like unemployment programs and tax evasion, indicating a broad acceptance for experimental approaches when outcomes are uncertain. Moreover, only a small percentage of respondents expressed strong opposition to experimentation, citing concerns about fairness and time delays.
The researchers also surveyed Dutch politicians, revealing that while some were hesitant about policy experiments, they were likely to change their stance if informed about voters’ supportive views. This adaptability hints at a potential for more experimental policies in the future, as politicians look to align with public opinion.
A potential for more experimental policies in the future
‘Dutch voters seem to understand the value of experimenting before implementing policies nationwide,’ says Professor Robert Dur, one of the study’s lead authors. ‘This receptiveness could encourage politicians to conduct more controlled trials and make evidence-based decisions.’
The study could reshape how governments approach policy innovation. Given the findings, Dutch policymakers may soon find themselves conducting more trials to better understand which policies work best for their communities, all with the voters’ support.
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The study is forthcoming in The Economic Journal, one of the oldest and most prominent academic journals in the economics profession. The paper can be downloaded (open access) from the journal’s website by following the link: https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueae090. For more information, please contact Ronald de Groot, Media & Public Relations Officer at Erasmus School of Economics, rdegroot@ese.eur.nl, mobile: +31 6 53 641 846.
