Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been widely perceived as a turning point in world politics – or a “Zeitenwende,” as described by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The invasion has triggered a range of economic, financial and conventional military responses. But Russia’s nuclear threats, which have accompanied the invasion, have raised another question: Does the war also represent a nuclear Zeitenwende, leading to change in nuclear policies? This question drives the focus of a special issue of The Nonproliferation Review titled Nuclear Zeitenwende? Edited by Prof. Michal Onderco (EUR) and Prof. Tobias Bunde (Hertie).
Co-edited by Michal Onderco Professor of International Relations at Erasmus University Rotterdam (EUR) and Tobias Bunde Professor of International Security at the Hertie School, the special issue approaches the question through the lens of domestic politics, investigating how domestic actors in various countries interpret and respond to Russia’s nuclear sabre-rattling. The articles reveal diverse national reactions, shaped by internal political and societal dynamics. As Bunde and Onderco assert in their introduction:“The nuclear Zeitenwende is what domestic actors make of it”.
Beyond analysing nuclear policy debates emerging in Russia and Ukraine, the issue also includes case studies on non-nuclear US allies supporting Ukraine, such as Germany, Poland, Japan, and South Korea, along with an analysis of a non-European nuclear power, Pakistan.
The collection of articles reveals fragmented global nuclear responses, illustrating both significant changes and continuities. It aims to open, rather than conclude, the debate about whether the world is witnessing a nuclear Zeitenwende and how its underlying dynamics can be analysed.
In their contribution focusing on Germany, Bunde and Onderco discuss how Russia’s nuclear threats unsettled the German domestic debate on nuclear deterrence, leading to a new “permissive dissensus.” Supporters of nuclear deterrence seized this moment to push through their preferred policy as Russia’s repeated nuclear threats bolstered the case for nuclear deterrence and momentarily weakened disarmament advocates.
The Special Issue builds on the insights developed in the Stanton Foundation-supported project Nuclear Politics in Europe, led by Michal Onderco, which focuses on domestic actors and their role in shaping the nuclear policies in Europe.
Nuclear Zeitwende? Editors Tobias Bunde &Michal Onderco special issue van The Nonproliferation Review.
This news item is coordinated with Hertie School
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Marjolein Kooistra, communications ESSB, kooistra@essb.eur.nl
