How the outcomes of COP26 affect researchers’ work

Now that the dust has settled, the delegates have gone home, and the political focus has returned to the demands of another global crisis, what can we conclude about the impact of COP26, when Glasgow played host to the world to discuss solutions to climate change? And what effect will those discussions have on the research work of members of the Global Societal Challenges group?

Fighting climate change is a long process

The first point to make on the impact is to reflect on the title of the conference – COP26. This is the 26th annual meeting of the world’s efforts to tackle climate change. While it is important to set high aspirational targets, it is also essential to appreciate that this is part of a long process. Those who hoped to turn the super-tanker around (an appropriate analogy!) in a fortnight were always destined to be disappointed.  But there were some important new commitments to the ongoing process that are worthy of mention. These include the annual reporting of plans, and a leaders’ meeting in 2023. The joint announcement from China and the US to work together on climate change was truly unexpected by all. The first announcement from India of a net-zero commitment – albeit by 2070 – must be viewed as a step forward. And the targets set for restricting deforestation and methane emissions were most welcome. Of course, there were disappointments too. The watering-down of the pledge on coal – from phasing out to phasing down – recognised that China and India are not yet ready or able to move away from their use of coal. This would have given significant assitance to the interests of fossil fuels. And then there was also the complete absence of a representation from Russia.

Front-runners are important

There was another critical development – again not expected, but highly indicative for the future – the emergence of multi-speed groupings of nations.  The joint commitment by Denmark, Sweden, France, Ireland and Costa Rica to ban future oil and gas exploration is a clear signal that we need not be constrained by the speed of the slowest. Front-runners can and will set the pace, develop new ideas which will benefit all, and act as exemplars for others to follow. This is important because – if the world is to achieve net-zero by 2050 (and so limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees) -   it cannot be expected that less developed areas such as Africa will be able to achieve this. This means that Europe and the US will have to be carbon-negative by 2050, and so will need to reach net-zero in the 2040s. The significance of this observation has still to work through international consciousness.

A just energy transition

The event will also have a bearing on the research agendas of individual members of the GSC team. Iain has a strong interest in the role of trades unions in ensuring that the energy transition is a just one. The International Trades Unions Congress (ITUC) organised a seminar on this subject at COP26, allowing him to hear at firsthand the views of leading trade unionists on the challenges involved in ensuring that the interests of workers are protected and enhanced by the COP programme.  The expert panel on this subject was – interestingly – all female. Insights from the panel inspired Todds's ongoing work on the role of trades unions in developing major international climate change projects such as the Green Deal in the EU and Build Back Better in the US.