It is not that to write tearful stories about what is going on in London. You don’t have to have a lot of knowledge to expect that in the short term there will be a lot of costs and little income from an exit from the EU. But isn’t there a chance that Boris Johnson will turn out to be brilliant in retrospect? According to Elbert Dijkgraaf, Professor of Empirical Economics of the public sector at Erasmus School of Economics, there are two major opportunities for the UK to emerge victorious.
‘The first opportunity presents itself if things really go wrong in the EU’, says Dijkgraaf. If several countries get into trouble, this will burden the other EU countries with an account that will lead to a severe recession. ‘Not only do they have to pay money for the rescue, but they are also affected by a drop in exports. The UK would then look back with great pleasure on the Brexit. They are the one who got out in time.’
There is also a positive opportunity for the UK. ‘Because the UK is leaving the EU, it will be able to conclude lucrative trade agreements with the growth economies of the future, countries like China, India, Indonesia and Brazil, much better and faster. Together with the US, these countries will form the world's top 5 in terms of economic size by 2050.’ Dijkgraaf sees this as enormous opportunities for the UK if it is capable of concluding beneficial trade agreements itself, while the EU has difficulty in reaching a negotiating position due to internal differences and the lack of transparency of the processes.
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Read the entire article of Reformatorisch Dagblad, 19 October 2019 (in Dutch).
