A comprehensive study by economists Prof. Olivier Marie (Erasmus School of Economics) and Prof. Paolo Pinotti (Bocconi University) reveals that fears about rising crime due to immigration are largely unfounded.
The study, published in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, combines an extensive review of the existing literature with new evidence to examine the relationship between immigration and criminal activity across multiple countries. While public opinion surveys in OECD countries reveal significant concerns about a perceived link between immigration and crime, empirical evidence paints a different picture.
Immigration does not lead to higher crime rates
Using data from 55 countries over three decades, the study first shows no correlation between higher immigration rates and increased crime levels. Homicide rates, for instance, decreased by one-third globally from 1990 to 2019, even as the share of immigrants in the population grew by two-thirds.
These findings remain consistent across multiple studies reviewed, which use innovative methodologies to test whether immigrant inflows causally increase crime rates in various countries. This is further supported by the authors' own analysis of novel data, comparing 215 regions across European countries, which also reveals no causal link between immigration and crime.
Migrant overrepresentation and crime rates
This is not to say that immigrants are not involved in crime; in fact, they are overrepresented in the prison populations of many countries. The study points to systemic factors, such as limited resources or discrimination, as well as demographic factors, such as being disproportionately young and male, to explain why immigrants are statistically more likely to engage with the criminal justice system.
However, the relatively small size of immigrant populations in many countries may limit their overall impact on crime rates. Additionally, some form of offender substitution may occur, with immigrants replacing natives in certain local “crime markets,” rather than contributing to an overall increase in crime levels.
The role of legal status
Legal status emerges as a critical factor in reducing crime among immigrants. Policies that grant work permits or legal residency significantly lower crime rates, as shown by the evaluation of policies implemented in Italy and the United States. Immigrants with access to formal labor markets are less likely to engage in illegal activities, emphasising the importance of well-designed integration policies.
Media influence and public perception
The study also highlights the role of media in shaping public fears about immigrant crime. In contexts like Switzerland and Chile, media coverage disproportionately focused on crimes involving immigrants, fueling misconceptions even when data showed no substantial increase in crime rates.
Policy implications
The findings by researchers Olivier Marie and Paolo Pinotti suggest that restrictive immigration policies may backfire by pushing immigrants into irregular situations, increasing the likelihood of crime. Conversely, policies that facilitate legal status and integration can mitigate public concerns and enhance societal safety.
This research underscores the importance of evidence-based policymaking in the immigration debate. As countries face rising migration, understanding the actual impact of immigration is essential for developing informed and effective solutions.
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For more information, please contact Ronald de Groot, Media & Public Relations Officer at Erasmus School of Economics, rdegroot@ese.eur.nl, mobile: +31 6 53 641 846.