The presentation of the Economic Outlook Rotterdam 2024 (in Dutch: Economische Verkenning Rotterdam), organised by Erasmus School of Economics on 28 May 2024, brought together researchers and experts to discuss the current economic landscape of Rotterdam with citizens and other interested parties.
This article briefly highlights the findings presented and takes you through the highlights of the day. A comprehensive publication will be published at the start of the upcoming academic year, so stay tuned.
Until 2022, the Economic Outlook Rotterdam was an annual event jointly organised by the City of Rotterdam, with various contributions from researchers at EUR. Erasmus School of Economics decided to uphold this tradition and has picked up the responsibility of looking ahead and identifying the major economic and societal challenges facing the city.
In a packed afternoon, moderated by Geert Maarse, the event informed participants about the challenges ahead and allowed them to discuss the main policy dilemmas for their field of interest and business. The afternoon kicked-off with a welcoming speech by Dean Patrick Groenen emphasising the Outlook’s significance in facilitating the sharing of economic research with both the city and policymakers.
Keynote speaker Prof. Karen van Oudenhoven (SCP)
Karen van Oudenhoven-van der Zee, Director of the Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP) and Professor of Social Resilience at VU Amsterdam, delivered insights into the nation's current state.
She emphasised structural inequality, low political trust, and individual quality of life as critical issues requiring attention for societal progress.
She highlighted the main challenges faced by our cities and regions and reflected on Rotterdam as focal point for and front runner in combating these challenges.
Insights Economic Outlook Rotterdam 2024
Dr Walter Manshanden (Netherlands Economic Observatory) presented the main findings of the Economic Outlook.
Although the findings are numerous, in summary, the Economic Outlook Rotterdam 2024 highlights significant transitions for Rotterdam and the Rijnmond region. Despite a slight decline in regional gross product, a rebound is expected, especially in 2025, outpacing the national average.
However, challenges such as global trade volatility persist due to factors like reshoring and external shocks. Technological shifts offer opportunities but also diminish Rotterdam's urban advantage. While employment remains stable, barriers to labor market participation persist for some, and flexibility in labor declines amidst ethical and immigration considerations.
SMEs encounter difficulties in adapting, potentially exacerbating social inequalities. Achieving broad prosperity requires comprehensive policies integrating economic, environmental, and social aspects. Overall, while Rotterdam's economic future seems promising, it is also challenging, as continued development addressing these challenges demands a holistic approach.
Panel discussion
The presentation was followed by a panel discussion with researchers Prof. Frank van Oort from Erasmus School of Economics and Jeroen van Haaren from the Erasmus Centre for Urban, Port and Transport Economics (Erasmus UPT). In their discussion, the challenge of declining agglomeration economies in Rotterdam, as well as the importance of adopting a ‘broad prosperity’ approach, took center stage.
Rotterdam alderman Robert Simons provided a reflection on the outcomes and highlighted the importance of the Economic Outlook. He argued for translating these city-wide outcomes to the specific needs of Rotterdam residents and their neighborhoods.
In-depth sessions
The day continued with in-depth sessions on various topics:
Broad prosperity is essential due to growing inequality and environmental issues. The focus is shifting from mere economic growth to sustainability and inclusion. During the session, Prof. Mark Thissen (PBL), Wijnand van Smaalen (Province of South Holland), and consultant Gerlof Rienstra discussed the challenges to implementing broad prosperity.
They identified monitoring and political roles as crucial but noted practical roadblocks. The discussion, aligning with Prof. Dr. Karen van Oudenhoven's keynote, covered objective vs. subjective measures, resource shortages, and true product costs.
Achieving broad prosperity requires interdisciplinary collaboration and societal acceptance, which are currently lacking. Despite its potential, a cultural shift and clearer definitions are required to bring the paradigm of broad prosperity to the next level.
Space is crucial for the Dutch economy but is increasingly scarce. The City of Rotterdam addressed this by studying how to balance essential economic activities within limited space. In a session led by Merten Nefs (UPT), strategies including selective space allocation, strengthening location qualities, and investing in multi-use buildings were discussed.
Participants emphasized the need for affordable and scalable business spaces to retain small businesses and startups. They also suggested dedicating a portion of urban developments to business spaces, with combined-use buildings being particularly relevant.
The sessions highlighted the need to look ahead and strategically develop the Rotterdam economy by guaranteeing space for essential services, while at the same time developing the competitive position of Rotterdam with respect to opportunities rising out of transitions (such as the energy and digitalisation transition).
A small group of selected participants engaged in a discussion about the future of the Economic Outlook, led by Jeroen van Haaren (UPT) and Menno Fenger (ESSB). This session covered questions like: How can the Economic Outlook Rotterdam continue to address emerging challenges in the economic landscape of Rotterdam in the future?
A key question for the session was how to address transitions from a multidisciplinary perspective and the role of economics in setting the agenda. The participants agreed on the importance of continuing the Outlook and committed to developing it further over the next years.
This workshop led by Florian Wijker (Erasmus Verbindt) and Joris Beek (ESSB) explored how changes in the Rotterdam labor market affect vulnerable individuals and those facing uncertain employment. In this session economists and sociologists discussed how their disciplines contribute to addressing this challenge and how they can reinforce the Rotterdam labour market with research and policy bridging disciplinary boundaries.
At center stage, participants from each of the break-out sessions shared their insights. The common thread in their responses was an upbeat expectation for the development of Rotterdam and a momentum for change in tackling the big missions ahead.
Rotterdam Alderman Tim Versnel provided his reflection on the day and emphasized the need to adopt a broad prosperity outlook. He had a sneak preview of the report and highlighted its importance in identifying the challenges ahead, particularly the challenge of capitalizing on economic gains to also improve socio-economic outcomes for all residents.
Erasmus School of Economics Director of Engagement Bas Karreman closed the day by thanking the participants and organisers for their positive contributions.
Economic Outlook Rotterdam 2024
- More information
The Economic Outlook 2024 continues beyond this event, with the research and the outcomes of the event being developed into a publication for all interested parties. Stay tuned as the publication will be available at the start of the new academic year (2024-2025).
In the meantime you can watch the video of the event livestream