Sandra Phlippen, Assistant Professor at Erasmus School of Economics and Head for the Netherlands of ABN AMRO’s Group Economics, participates in a panel discussion on BNR Nieuwsradio on Monday 25 March 2019, together with Menno Middeldorp (Chief Economist Rabobank) and Arnoud Boot (Professor Corporate Finance and Financial Markets at the University of Amsterdam). Among other things they reflect on the news that Germany's benchmark 10-year bond yield slid back into negative territory as worries over Brexit saw investors rushing for safe haven assets, tempering the impact of a surprise rise in business sentiment which lifted yields earlier in the session.
That investors want to pay to lend their money to Germany is because German government bonds possess a number characteristics which are attractive for investors: they are extremely save. Investors can lend their money to the German government without being exposed to the risk that the country will default upon its debt. The risk that Germany will go bankrupt is namely incredibly small. The Netherlands is also a very safe haven for investors. Just like Germany, it has a very high solvency. However, its liquidity is not as high as is the case for our eastern neighbors. As such, there is a difference between the German and Dutch government interest rates, but it is minimal. Even though there are big differences between countries such as Germany and the Netherlands on the one hand and Italy on the other, interest rates are globally relatively low because of the ageing population, many savings and few real, risky investments. As such, it looks like we are dealing with an inverted yield curve, and this rare type of yield curve is usually a predictor for a recession. Nevertheless, Sandra Phlippen says we should not be afraid of a recession. The interest rate can namely not be used as a clear signalling device any longer because of the quantitative easing programmes of the European Central Bank.
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Listen to the entire podcast on BNR Nieuwsradio, d.d. 25 March 2019