The Behavioural Foundations of Model Misspecification

Micro Seminar
Campus from above with Mandeville Building

We link two biased belief formation approaches: non-Bayesian updating rules and model misspecification. Each approach has advantages: updating rules transparently capture the underlying bias and are identifiable from belief data; misspecified models are ‘complete’ and amenable to general analysis.

Speaker
Daniel N. Hauser
Date
Friday 9 Feb 2024, 15:30 - 16:45
Type
Seminar
Room
T3-03
Building
Mandeville Building
Add to calendar

(joint with Aislinn Bohren)

We show misspecified models can be decomposed into an updating rule and forecast of anticipated future beliefs. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for an updating rule and forecast to have a unique misspecified model representation and construct it. This highlights the belief restrictions implicit in the misspecified model approach. Finally, we explore two ways to select forecasts: introspection-proof and naive-consistent. 

About the speaker

Daniel is currently Assistant Professor of Economics at Aalto University, and Research Affiliate in Organizational Economics at the Center for Economic Policy and Research Development (CEPR). His research interests are in the fields of microeconomic theory, in particulardynamic games, reputation, learning, and model misspecification. He obtained his PhD at the University of Pennsylvania and has published in Econometrica, AEJ: Micro, and RAND. 

Registration

If you would like to book a bilateral or join for lunch on Friday or join for dinner on Friday evening, please send an email to boring@ese.eur.nl.

Tinbergen Institute logo

See also

No event items found.

Compare @count study programme

  • @title

    • Duration: @duration
Compare study programmes