Theory of change
What
A theory of change is an articulation of the outcome you are looking for and the logic with which this outcome can be achieved.
Why
A theory of change obliges you to think about your goal as well as the path towards it. This helps provide focus, set priorities, take specific actions and evaluate these. At the same time it points up possible risks to be aware of.
How
- Elaborate the structure of a theory of change on a whiteboard, flip chart, wall or table, or use the sample template.
- Describe the issue or problem you are designing a solution for and identify contextual factors that complicate the issue.
- Define the desired outcome(s) you want your solution to achieve, and identify which preconditions this requires.
- Identify the mechanisms of change that need setting in motion to achieve this outcome or these outcomes, and find out on which assumptions this is based.
- Decide on the type of solutions that could get these changes going and reflect on any risks they may entail.
- Identify indicators you can test the efficacy of the types of solutions with, as well as indicators you can identify any risks with.
- Look at the theory of change from some distance. How realistic is the desired change? What is crucial for it? And what should be prevented in any case? Is anything else missing? Complement the theory of change where needed.